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Seasonal Spread Trade for Consistent Returns

Spread trading is a unique trading concept not all that familiar to the average commodity investor. The typical commodity trader analyzes a particular market, either from a technical or a fundamental standpoint, sometimes combining the two; makes a determination as to whether the market exhibits either a bullish or bearish bias, and then wagers by going long a futures contract or purchasing a call option, or by going short a futures contract or buying a put option. There are a number of variations on the theme, but the idea is basically the same.

The following demonstrates the inherent disadvantages, in the above two scenarios, of an outright futures position or the purchase of an option;

1. Size of account. The average investor has a limited account size, and can only withstand a certain amount of drawdown associated with any particular trade. The limited size of trading account necessitates the placement of a protective stop order above or below the position. The premature assumption of a position and the inherent volatility associated with commodity markets leaves the position vulnerable to a one or two day move that triggers the stop order, sidelining the trader as the position oftentimes turns back around. As the market moves in the trader’s favor, the advisability of using trailing stops, adjusting the protective stop in the direction of the trade makes sense in theory, but oftentimes the market will open well above or below the stop order, blowing out the stop and oftentimes taking away a substantial amount, if not all of the profit that was being locked in.

2. Time. In the case of an options purchase, you are basically purchasing time. As the purchaser of an option, the time clock and the calendar become your worst enemy. The value of your option depreciates as you wait for the market to move in your direction. Typically the purchaser of an option witnesses the market go up and down, as the value of his option changes, all along the remaining time value decaying on an accelerated curve as the option expiration day grows nearer.

Spread trading on the other hand, is a way of effectively combating the above two problems. Time no longer is an enemy and volatility, to a certain extent, is effectively reduced. Margins are substantially less due to the relative conservative nature of the “hedged” trade, which the commodity exchanges themselves recognize. Margin requirements, for a spread, can be reduced anywhere from 20% to 90%

Spread trading has no directional bias. The market can go up or down, the trade is based only the relationship between the long and the short position, i.e.- as long as the long side of your spread outperforms the short side you will be profitable. Spread trades can be in the same commodity with different delivery months (i.e. buy July Lean Hogs and sell December Lean Hogs), or different commodities (i.e. buy March Swiss Franc and sell March Australian Dollar). Generally speaking, both sides of the trade will have the same overall directional bias, as in being both long and short in the Grains (long July Corn/short March Corn) , or in the Meats (long Live Cattle/short Feeder Cattle), or in the Metals (long Gold/short Silver). This allows for the built in “hedge”.

Seasonal spread trading is another opportunity to take advantage of this manner of trading. As there are many seasonal tendencies associated with various commodity markets, there are also seasonal tendencies associated with seasonal spread trades. Seasonality is a seasonal cycle that forms a similar, reliable pattern every year for many years.

Reliable seasonal tendencies are all around us.

Everyone is familiar with weather seasonality. In the winter months the temperature is colder than in the summer months.

Farmers will plant crops and harvest crops at about the same time every year.

In the summer months, Crude Oil is usually higher than in winter (because people drive cars more in summer).

In the winter months heating oil is usually higher than in the summer (because more people are trying to stay warm in winter).

At TransWorld Futures, www.TransWorldFutures.com, we go back over 15 years of research and analyze high percentage seasonal spread trade patterns. If a commodity doesn’t exhibit a high seasonal correlation, it is tossed out of the data base.

Any spread trade that has been successful 80% of the time or better over the past 15 years is certainly a possible candidate for exhibiting a seasonal tendency and worth analyzing further. Once the high percentage entry and exit dates are determined, it is time to examine the trade on the technical setup. Is the spread overbought or oversold, what are the resistance points? Basically does the trade look technically as well as fundamentally sound. There are a number of advisory services that offer seasonal spread trade recommendations based on historical analysis, but, by ignoring the technical set up, may result in entering the trade too early, resulting in unnecessarily large draw downs, or in entering too late, missing the trade altogether. We attempt to alleviate the stress, and do the leg work for you. The results from this unique form of trading have to be seen to be believed. Please contact one of our friendly brokers today, and learn about one of the most consistent trade indicators.

Rob Rutger

Senior Analyst

TransWorld Futures

Rob@TransWorldFutures.com

Toll free: 1-877-843-4519

International: 011-813-241-1902

Fax: 1-813-241-1927

www.TransWorldFutures.com

This digital document is a journal article from Journal of Multinational Financial Management, published by Elsevier in . The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.Description: This article examines the effect of disappointment aversion on cross-hedging decisions. We show that, when both futures and options markets are unbiased, disappointment aversion has no effect on the optimal hedge positions. In case that either market is biased, disappointment aversion induces the hedger to behave more conservatively. In addition, as the hedger becomes more disappointment averse, his action is more reserved. It is also found that disappointment aversion tends to depress the importance of the put options whereas the effect of risk aversion is not uniform. Analytical predictions are supplemented by numerical exercises.

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Most businesses will face commodity risk in some form. It is how the company manages this risk that will help to determine the success of the firm. In this highly practical book, John J. Stephens explains in a clear concise manner the best techniques for managing such risks. Aimed at the ordinary businessperson, this book is a practical primer for those who wish to manage and minimise the risk to their industry, through instruments such as commodity futures, without wishing to have the technical knowledge of professional financiers. This book provides the ideal starting point for the good manager not only to minimise commodity risk but to gain benefit also.

From the Inside Flap

Commodity risk and commodity futures are not merely used by financial traders, they can also be an invaluable tool for the everyday business manager. This book examines, in a balanaced and objective fashion, the extent to which the commodity futures markets can be used to the (more…)

There are several standardized items involved in any futures contract. They are: the month and date of delivery; the quality of the underlying product (for financial futures they are not required); the quantity of the underlying product; minimum change of price (called ‘tick-size’); price quotation on the units (not the price itself); and finally the settlement location.

Concerning futures, once the trade is confirmed between two members of the exchange, the exchange house becomes the counter-party and guarantees every trade. With the market reporting of volumes and price being standardized futures contracts are more fluid and their price clearer. Any member of the exchange has the ability to reverse a futures contract. A Contango market is when the futures contracts are priced
above the spot price. Should the price of the futures frequently fall below the spot price it is known as a Backwardation. A call option is an option to buy, and is purchased in expectation of rising prices. A put option or sell option is purchased to protect investment profits against the expectation of a falling price.

The use of options, like futures, give both individuals and firms a hedge against the risk in wide price fluctuations. This gives speculator the opportunity to gamble for greater profits with limited liability. With future contracts there are no up front costs (called the Premium) to enter, unlike an options contract that has immediate costs upon entering.

As with any investing you must weigh the risks versus rewards before setting forth.

Commercial hedgers are corporations and sometime individuals, that seek to ensure the stability of a given commodity by taking a position in the commodities market. Take peas for example, and the hedger, a food processor who cans them. If pea prices go up the hedger ends up having to pay the farmer or pea dealer more. Because it is basically a cash commodity, to protect himself against higher pea prices, the processor can “hedge” his risk exposure by buying enough pea futures contracts to cover the amount of peas he expects to buy. Since cash and futures prices do tend to move in tandem, the futures position will profit if the price of peas rise enough to offset cash pea losses.Speculators are the second major group of futures players. These participants include independent floor traders and investors. A speculator is a person, or more likely an institution, that purchases or sells the commodities based on factors other than simply analysis. Whereas investors will focus, by and large, on detailed analysis.Gambling With Your FuturesFive Reasons To Roll the DiceSince most individual traders are speculators, here is a list of some of the advantages and disadvantages of the futures market over other investment possibilities. 1. The possibility exist that a person can make more money faster in the futures market, because  the speed of prices tend to change faster than stocks. Conversely, bad judgment can cause one to suffer greater losses than traditional investments.2. Futures are highly leveraged investments. The trader only puts up about 15-20% as a margin, yet still being able to ride the full amount of the contract. Unlike stocks where at least 50% of its value has to be put up, and the investor pays interest on the difference between the margin and the full contract value. 3. For the most part there is no inside trading. Everyone has the same insiders information on the weather, for example. This is an open outcry market, very public, which insures a fair outcome.4. Commission charges on futures trades are small compared to other investments, and the investor pays them after the position is liquidated.5. Most commodity markets are very broad and liquid. Transactions can be completed quickly, lowering the risk of adverse market moves between the time of the decision to trade and the trade’s execution. I hope this has helped in your research. I don’t profess to being an expert, but I do know of some. I obviously don’t have the time to go into all the details now, but at my site  Market Mentalist you will find all you need to know about investing online. I have a page devoted to futures. There is access to some of the top trading systems available including software, books, newsletters, and Forums. Whether you are an inquisitive novice or a seasoned pro Market Mentalist offers the online investment resource you just might be seeking.

Today’s Premier Guidebook for Understanding Agricultural Options and Making Them a Key Part of Your Trading and Risk Management Strategy Agricultural futures and options represent a vital niche in today’s options trading world. Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options takes an in-depth look at these valuable trading tools, and presents clear, proven strategies and techniques for both hedgers and traders to achieve their goals while minimizing risk. Relying on nuts-and-bolts techniques and examples as opposed to the mathematical models and theory favored by other options-trading manuals this practical, hands-on book discusses many topics, including: How hedgers and traders can use options effectively with realistic expectations Methods to understand price behavior including the Greeks (delta, gamma, vega, and theta) The importance of volatility and little-known ways to make it work to your advantage For producers and processors, agricultural futures and (more…)

Most businesses will face commodity risk in some form. It is how the company manages this risk that will help to determine the success of the firm. In this highly practical book, John J. Stephens explains in a clear concise manner the best techniques for managing such risks. Aimed at the ordinary businessperson, this book is a practical primer for those who wish to manage and minimise the risk to their industry, through instruments such as commodity futures, without wishing to have the technical knowledge of professional financiers. This book provides the ideal starting point for the good manager not only to minimise commodity risk but to gain benefit also.

From the Inside Flap

Commodity risk and commodity futures are not merely used by financial traders, they can also be an invaluable tool for the everyday business manager. This book examines, in a balanaced and objective fashion, the extent to which the commodity futures markets can be used to the (more…)