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Options come in two different flavors. Call options give the contract holder the right to buy the currency. Put options give the contract holder the right to sell the currency to someone else.

When the contract expires the actual value of the options is whatever the holder will get by actually exercising the contract. If the holder will gain nothing by exercising the option then the actual value of the option is zero. The value of the option at any other time during the contract is what is called the intrinsic value, that is the value if the holder were to exercise the option at that time.

The intrinsic value is partially based on the set price of the contract, which is also known as the “strike price”. A call option has an intrinsic value if the current price of the currency is higher than the strike price. This would allow the contract holder to buy the currency at less than the current value and then re-sell it for a profit. A put option has an intrinsic value if the current price is less than the strike price of the option.

Any time an option has a positive intrinsic value it is said to be “in the money” if the intrinsic value is negative then the option is considered to be “out of the money”. It can also have a value of zero which means that the current price is the same as the strike price in which case it is considered to be “a the money”. Options should only be exercised when they are “in the money”.

There are complicated formulas used to calculate the intrinsic value of an option, these formulas take into consideration both the current price as well as the time value. The time value is calculated based on the market conditions, including things like interest rates on both currencies as well as the time left in the contract. The pricing of options is delicate; they must be low enough to attract buyers but also high enough to attract the sellers as well.

Options are primarily used to minimize risk in FOREX trades. They help to protect against unexpected fluctuations in the market. When you buy an option your potential loss is limited to the price of the option. When you sell options your potential loss can be significantly higher. The seller gains the premium for selling the option but depending on how the market moves their loss could be unlimited.

As a hedging tool, there are many different types of options available. They are often used to minimize the potential for loss due to fluctuations in the foreign exchange market by companies that trade overseas.

In the FOREX market there is a special option known as a digital option. A digital option pays a specified amount at expiration if certain criteria are met. If the criteria are not met there is no payment.

To us a digital option the trader must first decide which way the market is moving. They then decide on a payoff amount if the market moves as expected within a certain time frame. Using this information they can then calculate the price of the digital option.

For example:

The price of the euro is currently trading at about 1.2400 and you expect it to rise to 1.2800 within 3 months. You decide to buy a put digital option with a payoff of $5000. The cost of the option is $800.

If at the end of the 3 months the euro is more than 1.2800 you get $5000. If the price is less, you lose $800.

Options can be a valuable trading tool for all FOREX traders.

Introduction

First, let’s take a look at the carry trade. In short, the carry trade is used when an investor or speculator is attempting to capture the price appreciation or depreciation in a currency while also profiting on the interest differential. Using this strategy, a trader is essentially selling a currency that is offering a relatively low interest rate while buying a currency that is offering a higher interest rate. This way, the trader is able to profit from the differential of interest rates.

With the introduction of the carry trade , yen currency pairs have become the speculator’s preference. Currency crosses like the GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY have been able to net small intraday or even longer term profits for the currency trader as speculation continues to support the bid tone. But how can one enter into a market that is already seemingly overheated? Even if a trader could, what would be a good price, and doesn’t everything that goes up come down? The answer is easier and simpler than most believe. In this article we’ll show you how to use carry trades to profit from overwhelming market momentum.

Definition

A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates – which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage the investor chooses to use.

For example, taking one of the favored pairs in the market right now, let’s take a look at the New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen currency pair. Here, a carry trader would borrow Japanese yen and then convert it into New Zealand dollars. After the conversion, the speculator would then buy a Kiwi bond for the corresponding amount, earning 8%. Therefore, the investor makes a 7.5% return on the interest alone after taking into account the 0.5% that is paid on the yen funds.

Now on the earning side of the trade, the investor is also hoping that the price will appreciate in order to make further gains on the transaction. In this case, anyone that has invested in the NZD/JPY trade has been able to reap plenty of benefits.

Evolution of the carry trade

The first wave of carry trade started in the late 1980s when financial speculators borrowed in yen and invested in European securities. This first phase ended in 1993 after the Japanese bubble collapsed, Japanese investors retreated home and the yen appreciated.

The second round of carry trade began in the summer of 1995 and ended in late 1998 after Russia defaulted, the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund collapsed, and the Japanese government planned to recapitalize the distressed banking sector. The yen rose 15% against the dollar in a week.

The recent wave of the yen carry trade is built on the Japanese government’s policy of keeping its interest rate and currency low in order to export its way out of recession and deflation. It has continued until (10-17 August) when the yen jumped 10% caused by the default in sub-prime mortgages and the knock-on effects on equity markets worldwide.

Profitability in carry trade

Over the past five years, official interest rates have been lowest in Japan and Switzerland, and the yen and the Swiss franc are the most commonly cited funding currencies (Graph 1). The Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and sterling have appreciated steadily and have been cited as popular target currencies, although a number of other currencies are often used as well (eg the Brazilian real and the South African rand). Since 2004, with the normalization of policy rates from historically low levels, the US dollar has moved from being a funding currency to a potential target.

The carry-to-risk ratio is a popular ex ante measure of the attractiveness of carry trades. It adjusts the interest rate differential by the risk of future exchange rate movements, where this risk is proxied by the expected volatility (implied by foreign exchange options) of the relevant currency pair. By this measure, carry trade positions that were short yen and long target currencies such as the Australian dollar were increasingly promising from 2002 to 2005.

Graph: 1

Sources: Bloomberg; JPMorgan Chase; national data; BIS calculations

These positions have remained so on average, despite two bouts of higher volatility which led to significant, albeit temporary, declines in the attractiveness of some target currencies (eg the South African rand).Over the longer term, however, the attractiveness of carry trades relative to other investments is less clear (Burnside et al (2006)).

Risk reversals – or the price difference between two equivalently out of the-money options – potentially provide an alternative market indicator of perceived risks in carry trades. If the risk associated with carry trade returns is not generalized uncertainty about future values of the exchange rates, as the carry-to-risk measure implicitly assumes, but rather directional uncertainty, this will be more effectively captured by risk reversals calculated from out-of-the money options. A strong correlation between the two measures is apparent in Graph 1. In addition, Gagnon and Chaboud (2007) argue that movements in risk reversals tend to post-date large exchange rate movements in periods of high volatility.

The Mechanics of Earning Interest

One of the cornerstones of the carry trade strategy is the ability to earn interest. The income is accrued every day for long carry trades with triple rollover given on Wednesday to account for Saturday and Sunday rolls. Roughly speaking, the daily interest is calculated in the following way:

(Interest Rate of the Currency that you are Long – Interest Rate of the Currency that you are Short) x Notional of Your Position

———————————————————————–

No of Days in a Year

For example one lot of NZD/JPY that has a notional of 100,000, we compute interest the following way:

(.8 – 0.005) x 100,000 = approximately $20 a day

365

It is important to realize that this amount can only be earned by traders who are long NZD/JPY. For those who are fading the carry, interest will need to be paid every day.

Flags and Pennants in carry trade

At present in this currency rising trend, how can a trader really capture market profits in the bull market? One such formation that has proved to be a great setup may be the all too familiar, flag and pennant formations. This has been especially useful in carry currency crosses such as British pound/Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen. Both formations are used in similar capacities; they are great short-term tools that can be applied to capture nothing but continuations in the foreign exchange market. They are both even more applicable when the market, especially in the case of carry trade currencies, has been trading higher and higher in every session.

To get a better sense of how this works, let’s quickly review the differences between a flag and a pennant:

• A flag formation is a charting pattern that is indicative of consolidation following an upward surge in price. The name is attributed to the fact that it resembles an actual flag with a downward-sloping body (due to price consolidation) and a visually evident post. Targets are also very reliable in flag formations. Traders who use this technical pattern will reference the distance from the bottom of the post (significant support level) to the top. Subsequently, when the price breaks the upper trend line of the flag, the distance of the post will more often than not be equivalent to the next level of resistance.

• A pennant formation is similar to the flag formation – it differs only in the form of consolidation. Instead of a body of consolidation that moves in the opposite direction of the post (as in the case of a flag), the pennant’s body is simply a symmetrical triangle. Although pennants have been known to slope downward as well, the textbook formation has also been noted as a symmetrical triangle, hence the name.

Similar setups are seen in the cross currency pairs, giving the trader plenty of opportunities in the currency market, with or without dollar exposure. Taking another market favorite, the British pound/Japanese yen, let’s take a look at how this method can be applied to the chart.

In the short-term 60-minute chart in Graph 2, a typically long flag formation is coming around in the GBP/JPY currency pair. In order to establish the formation initially, it is recommended that the chartist draw the topside trend line first. This rule is a must as an initial drawing of the bottom trend line may lead to varying interpretations. Once the initial downward-sloping trend line is drawn, the bottom is a simple duplicate. Here, the trader will make sure to note a touch by the session bodies rather than the wicks in verifying the formation as true. This is to isolate only true price action and not volatility or common “noise” that may occur in the short term.

Step by Step procedure for carry traders:

Now let’s take a look at a step by step process that will allow traders to enter on the carry trade momentum in the market. Figure 3 shows a great opportunity in the New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen cross pair. Following the complete downturn that occurred July 9 – July11, 2007, a visual burst can be seen by chartists as bidders take the currency higher over the next 48 hours, establishing a temporary top at Point A.

Source: FX Trek Intellicharts Figure 3: Following A Sharp Decline, NZDJPY Vaults Higher Off Of Support

1. After consolidation, draw the topside trend line first, completing the formation with the duplicate bottom trend line giving the chartist the flag boundaries.

2. On a sign of a trend line break, measure the distance from the bottom of the post to the top. In this instance, the bottom support of the post is 93.81 with the top at 95.74. This gives the trader a potential for 193 pips on the trade after a break of the top trend line.

3. Once there is a confirmed break of the trend line, place the entry that is at the session close or lower of the finished candle. In this case, the break occurs approximately at 95.40 with the entry being placed at that session’s close of 95.46 (Point C). Subsequently, a corresponding stop is placed five pips below the session low of 95.37. Ultimately, the position is well within normal risk parameters as it is risking 14 pips to make 193 pips.

4. Set initial and full targets. With the full move estimated at 193 pips, we get a partial distance of 96 pips (193 pips / 2). As a result, the initial target is set for 96.42 (Point B).

5. Set contingent trailing stops. Once the initial target is achieved, the overall position should be reduced by half with the rest being protected by a trailing stop set at the entry price (or break-even). This will allow for further gains while protecting against adverse moves against whatever is left. Longer term strategies will hold to the entry price as the ultimate stop, promoting a worst-case scenario of break-even.

Best Way to Trade Carry

With the pros and cons of carry trading in mind, the best way to trade carry is through a basket. When it comes to carry trades, at any point in time, one central bank may be holding interest rates steady while another may be increasing or decreasing them. With a basket that consists of the three highest and the three lowest yielding currencies, any one currency pair only represents a portion of the whole portfolio; therefore, even if there is carry trade liquidation in one currency pair, the losses are controlled by owning a basket. This is actually the preferred way of trading carry for investment banks and hedge funds. This strategy may be a bit tricky for individuals because trading a basket would naturally require greater capital, but it can be done with smaller lot sizes. The key with a basket is to dynamically change the portfolio allocations based upon the interest rate curve and monetary policies of the central banks.

Conclusion

The carry trade is a long-term strategy that is far more suitable for investors than traders because investors will revel in the fact that they will only need to check price quotes a few times a week rather than a few times a day. True carry traders, including the leading banks on , will hold their positions for months (if not years) at a time. The cornerstone of the carry trade strategy is to get paid while you wait, so waiting is actually a good thing.

Partly due to the demand for carry trades, trends in the currency market are strong and directional. This is important for short-term traders as well because, in a currency pair where the interest rate differential is very significant, it may be far more profitable to look for opportunities to buy on dips in the direction of the carry than to try to fade it. For those who insist on fading AUD/JPY strength for example, they should be wary of holding short positions for too long because with each passing day, more interest will need to be paid. The best way for shorter term traders to look at interest is that earning it helps to reduce your average price while paying interest increases it. For an intraday trade, the carry will not matter, but for a three-, four- or five-day trade, the direction of carry becomes far more meaningful.

Commercial hedgers are corporations and sometime individuals, that seek to ensure the stability of a given commodity by taking a position in the commodities market. Take peas for example, and the hedger, a food processor who cans them. If pea prices go up the hedger ends up having to pay the farmer or pea dealer more. Because it is basically a cash commodity, to protect himself against higher pea prices, the processor can “hedge” his risk exposure by buying enough pea futures contracts to cover the amount of peas he expects to buy. Since cash and futures prices do tend to move in tandem, the futures position will profit if the price of peas rise enough to offset cash pea losses.Speculators are the second major group of futures players. These participants include independent floor traders and investors. A speculator is a person, or more likely an institution, that purchases or sells the commodities based on factors other than simply analysis. Whereas investors will focus, by and large, on detailed analysis.Gambling With Your FuturesFive Reasons To Roll the DiceSince most individual traders are speculators, here is a list of some of the advantages and disadvantages of the futures market over other investment possibilities. 1. The possibility exist that a person can make more money faster in the futures market, because  the speed of prices tend to change faster than stocks. Conversely, bad judgment can cause one to suffer greater losses than traditional investments.2. Futures are highly leveraged investments. The trader only puts up about 15-20% as a margin, yet still being able to ride the full amount of the contract. Unlike stocks where at least 50% of its value has to be put up, and the investor pays interest on the difference between the margin and the full contract value. 3. For the most part there is no inside trading. Everyone has the same insiders information on the weather, for example. This is an open outcry market, very public, which insures a fair outcome.4. Commission charges on futures trades are small compared to other investments, and the investor pays them after the position is liquidated.5. Most commodity markets are very broad and liquid. Transactions can be completed quickly, lowering the risk of adverse market moves between the time of the decision to trade and the trade’s execution. I hope this has helped in your research. I don’t profess to being an expert, but I do know of some. I obviously don’t have the time to go into all the details now, but at my site  Market Mentalist you will find all you need to know about investing online. I have a page devoted to futures. There is access to some of the top trading systems available including software, books, newsletters, and Forums. Whether you are an inquisitive novice or a seasoned pro Market Mentalist offers the online investment resource you just might be seeking.

But where the does the long term investor fit in? Are there any option trading strategies that the conservative investor can employ to enhance his or her long term returns?

In fact, there are.

Leveraged Investing

There are actually a number of option trading strategies that can be employed by the long term investor. Leveraged Investing is the name I’ve given this approach, and these are the strategies I use myself.

The point of Leveraged Investing is to use options to acquire stock for a discount and then to generate additional returns above and beyond the actual performance of the stock itself.

Here are just two examples:

[Please note: in the interest of simplicity, commissions have been excluded from all examples.]

Example #1 – Writing Covered Calls. Writing covered calls is a popular, and generally conservative, income-producing strategy. A call option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase 100 shares of the underlying stock at a certain price (strike price) by a certain date (expiration date).

Conversely, when you write, or sell, a call option on shares that you own, you sell (you receive a premium in the form of cash) someone else the right to purchase your stock at a certain price at or prior to the expiration date. If you own 100 shares of a stock trading at $28/share, you could write a $30 covered call expiring in one month. If the stock closes above $30/share, you’ll be obligated to sell your shares for $30/share. But if the stock closes at or below $30/share, the call option will expire worthless and you’re free to repeat the process. Either way, the premium received is yours to keep.

Writing covered calls is a great way to generate additional income from your investments, but the long term investor must take extra precautions to avoid being called out and forced to sell his or her long term holdings (I call one such precaution, The 1/3 Covered Call Writing Strategy–it basically consists of writing covered calls on only a portion of your portfolio in order to give yourself greater flexibility and protection against sharp moves higher by the stock).

Example #2 – Writing Puts to Acquire Stock at a Discount. A put option, in contrast, gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of the underlying stock at a certain price by a certain date. When you write, or sell, a put, you’re essentially insuring someone else’s shares against a drop below the agreed upon strike price.

Like writing covered calls, writing puts can be a great source of income. In fact, the risk-reward profiles for writing puts and writing covered calls are essentially the same. Whereas call writers may write calls out of the money, at the money, or even in the money (the most conservative approach), put writers will typically write out of the money puts (e.g. writing a put with a $30 strike price on a stock currently trading at $32/share).

But for the long term investor, income is of less importance than the opportunity to buy a stock at a lower price that what it’s currently trading at. Writing an at the money put will greatly improve the likelihood of acquiring the stock, and you’ll also receive the most pure premium.

Example: Suppose you write an at the money put on a stock that you really like. If the stock is trading at $30/share and you write the put at the $30 strike price for, let’s say, $2.50 in premium (or $250 in cash since each option contract represents 100 shares of the underlying stock) you’re setting yourself up for a win-win situation. That’s not to say you can’t lose money on the deal, but look at the two possible scenarios.

Conclusion:

As they say, options involve risk and may not be suitable for everyone. But not all option trading strategies have to be high risk propositions. Some approaches, in fact, may offer substantial benefits for the conservative investor. If you are a long term investor, it may be worth your while to conduct additional research to see if there should be a place in your portfolio for options.

How much money do I need to start?

One of the beautiful things about options trading is it’s one of the few businesses that you can take for a free test drive to see if you can be successful at it. By trading in a simulator you can start your business with no money. Obviously you won’t be earning anything either, but you will be gaining valuable knowledge. You can find a simulator at CBOE.com. After you’ve traded in the simulator for a few months and become consistently profitable you can start with as little as $2,000.

Finding a broker

The first step in getting started in an options business is finding a broker. There are many (excuse the pun) options available, a few of the good ones include, OptionsXpress, TradeStation and Interactive Brokers. These are all members of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), which are two organizations that protect you against fraud from financial brokers.

Putting the Odds in your favor

While this isn’t a comprehensive list there are a few things that you can do to stack the odds in your favor when dealing in stock options. First of all rather than buying puts and calls you can use credit spreads. This method of selling a higher priced option and purchasing a lower priced option alone will stack the odds enormously in your favor simply because this method can allow you to make money whether the markets go up, down or sideways. As a matter of fact using this method can allow you to win as much as 80-90% of the time, which is why professional traders use this type of trade to generate consistent income. The next thing you want to do is a bit of technical analysis and look at the S&P stock index. If the index is moving above it’s 200 day moving average you generally want to be purchasing stocks or using bull put credit spreads. If the index is moving below it’s 200 day moving average you should short sell stocks or use bear call spreads. How much can I earn? This can fluctuate depending on market conditions but by using credit spreads you can make anywhere from 5-20% a month. So with $10,000 you can generate anywhere from $500-$2000 in extra income a month.

Reducing Your Risk

1.Start off by trading in a simulator at CBOE.com

2.Always use a stop loss or have your positions hedged.

3.Never trade with money that you need to pay for you day to day expenses with such as rent and bills. Nervous money always loses.

If you’d like to find out more about options trading and credit spreads click on the link in the resource box below and sign up for a free 10 part course.

Private investors are going into Forex Market, with access to the same market data and tools used by bank, hedge funds company and professional traders.

Below here is 9 reason on why you must trade Forex.

1. Round the clock trading

The forex market is unique in that it is open 24 hours nearly 7 days a week. The market opens when the New Zealand and Australia markets open and closes when the US market closes. Due to the difference in time zone, it would seem that the forex markets are opened always.

2. No need to choose from too many counters

Unlike equities, in forex you would only need to understand the minimum of 1 pair of currencies and concentrate on it. Whereas for stocks and shares, before you can start understanding the equity you would have to sieve through thousands of companies before you can start to concentrate on trading them.

3. Liquidity

As the forex market is the biggest around, it is very liquid. Average daily turnover rose to $3.2 trillion in April 2007. Given its size, buyers and sellers can easily get their orders matched swiftly and easily. Whereas in the equity markets, one would have to wait for their orders to be matched especially if it concerns a stock that is not very well traded.

4. Good Leverage

In forex, you are able to obtain leverage up to 200:1 or even more depending on the broker. This means a minimum deposit of USD 500 can allow a trader to open a position size of 100,000 to trade. No other markets give you this advantage. However, do note that leverage can be a double-edged sword too.

Stay tune to the Forex Options Trading – 9 Reasons on Why You Must Trade Forex (Part 2 of 2)